💼 JPMorgan Says “No Recession, Just a Subpar Party!” 🎉 in 2024 – What’s Up with That? 🤔
TL;DR: JPMorgan drops the gloom, forgets the recession forecast for 2023 and 2024, and now foresees ‘subpar growth.’ Factors? Improved Q3 data, the AI craze, and strong productivity stats. Watch out for the risk of downturn though! Is Wall Street playing the optimism card, or is there something more to it? 🧐
Oh, you thought there would be a recession in 2024? Well, JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, just threw that forecast into the “nope” bin. Now they’re seeing ‘subpar growth,’ whatever that means! 🎭
First, let’s take a look at what changed. Why the sudden optimism? 🌞
Improving third-quarter data: The stats are looking good, folks!
Waning inflation: Maybe your bank account will stop shrinking?
Increasing chance of Fed success: If they can tame the wild beast of inflation, that’s a win, right?
Temporary debt-ceiling resolution & shoring up the U.S. banking system: Are we adulting yet?
Feroli even raised his forecast for Q3 GDP growth to 2.5% from a rather dismal 0.5%. 📈
Let’s pause here, shall we? Doesn’t this sound a tad too good? Is Wall Street suddenly overestimating the economy’s prospects? 🤨
And what’s with the mention of the artificial intelligence (AI) craze adding some fuel to productivity? Talk about futuristic economic forecasts! 🤖
But wait, don’t pop the champagne yet. 🍾 Feroli admits that risks of a downturn still lurk in the shadows. More interest-rate hikes could pull down the economy if inflation plays a cruel comeback. So, are we just dancing on a tightrope here?
Even if a recession is dodged, JPMorgan predicts growth slowing down to a ‘subpar’ level. Hmm, subpar like that last meal you ordered on a food delivery app? 🙄 Maybe not. But it’s all about tighter bank lending and less government spending. Feroli even anticipates the Fed cutting rates again in Q3 2024.
Some parting thoughts, dear reader. 🤓 JPMorgan isn’t alone in this recession U-turn. Goldman Sachs and others are dropping or softening their recession calls. The market’s feeling a bit uneasy, though, with the Nasdaq Composite Index booking its biggest weekly percentage drop since March 10.
So here’s the deal. We’re on a roller coaster, but the dips might not be as scary as we thought.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide financial or investment advice. It’s just a quirky look at what’s happening in the financial world.
Your Turn, Economically Savvy Reader: JPMorgan’s sudden shift to optimism could mean they see something others don’t, or it could be a mere change of perspective. What do you think it says about the current state of the U.S. economy? Is the fear of recession truly behind us, or is this just a case of Wall Street playing with our economic emotions? 🎢